Tonight I attended my first public debate of the term at LSE. These excellent events are a great resource and forum for ideas, free to attend and always entertaining. This evening’s debate was between Professor Paul Rogers of University of Bradford and Professor Bill Wohlforth of Dartmouth University, USA. Below is a prose summarisation of the debate.
To quote the Chinese saying, we live in “interesting times”. The United States is not an international outlaw. Its compliance rate with the vast majority of international treaties is very high; it does resist new treaties but only when they are not in line with US foreign policy. This does not make the United States an international outlaw. It operates in a passive sheriff role often, such as its enforcement of its treaty with Japan preventing Japan’s development of nuclear weapons. Its actions are mostly responses to the demands of intervention. The last 15 years has seen a shift to interventionism in international relations. When it does intervene it is not necessarily alone. In recent conflicts, whether in Yugoslavia, Afghanistan or Iraq, it has intervened with allies.
The post Cold War period has seen major changes in state of world security: a 40% decline in global conflicts; 35% decrease in world arms sales. The world is a safer place as a result and the United States poses less threat to international threat stability.
The Neo-con phase which peaked in 2003 is now over. The US electorate has seen the failings of this policy and has shown itself to be shifting away from President Bush. Other politicians are also trying to distance themselves from this policy as well. The idea of the United States as an international outlaw is fading in the Iraq quagmire.
******
There have been some very dangerous developments in the global security environment in the last 5-6 years. What we are now seeing is an “Entry strategy” being set up in Iraq that will effect the geopolitical situation for the next 20 to 30 years.
The ideological foundation for these developments is the right wing think tank Project for New American Century, established in 1997, and incorporating both current Bush administration and early Reagan officials. The combination of Christian / Zionist beliefs and Neo-conservatism marked a new era of US foreign policy, where the role of Sheriff and Outlaw has often been mixed up.
The aim of the September 11th terrorist attacks was in part to draw the United States into a protracted war in Afghanistan, where they would be bogged down like the Soviet Union in the 1980s and suffer high military casualties. This did not happen as heavy aerial bombing, special operations tactics and a rearmed Northern Alliance, brought a swift victory. Rogers encountered a Bush official in Washington in 2002, who said that doing Iraq meant not having to do Iran. The speed of victory and hubris that went with the Afghan victory encouraged preparation for this new war. Arms manufacturers had to operate 24/7 for the next 10 months to provide enough ammunition for Iraq.
The termination of the Iraqi regime has provided an opportunity for a revitalised Al-Qaida. Al-Qaida’s long term goals have become more apparent. The restoration of a Caliphate being an ultimate one. The resolution of the Israeli occupation of Palestine is a side issue. The greatest Caliphate between 750 and 1250 had its capital as Baghdad, now occupied the US, thus antagonising this movement further. Iraq has now become the ideal training ground for jihadis, where Afghan paramilitaries now go to Iraq to receive training to fight in Afghanistan.
The siege of Fallujah in November 2004 could be seen from two very different perspectives: the abundant TV crews in embedded US army patrols and the Al-Jazeera Arab journalists broadcasting images of dead civilians to the Middle East. This split in perspectives defines the current situation in the Middle East.
The Iraq war was not driven by a need to increase the United States oil power base, but by long term trends. The importance of the Persian Gulf has become ever increasing. Its initial moment of significance was the start of the Yom Kippur war on October 17th 1973 and the oil embargo that followed. Now it would not be surprising if the US has bases in Iraq in 10 years time. Al-Qaida should be looked at as a symptom of these current trends rather than an entity in its own right. The next question is the invasion of Iran. Iran feels surrounded by United States and feels nuclear weapons are needed to defend itself.
Since September 11th, the United States has gone badly wrong on foreign policy, behaved in an outlandish way and needs to change its long term security strategy to get out of this predicament.
No comments:
Post a Comment