Algeria - an unfinished war

After a new front opened in the Horn of Africa earlier this year, and completing another little jihadist historical cycle, Algeria's militant GSPC group have adopted brand bin laden, changing their name to the al-Qaeda organisation in the Islamic Maghreb. A signed statement posted on the internet confirms fears that Al-Qaeda's influence is slowly spreading across North Africa, and that Algeria's civil war of the 1990s is not quite finished. How serious are either of these developments? The brand has been widely adopted by various jihadist groups of varying capability, but this does not necessarily imply an operational partnership. Know-how is widely available via the internet and thousands of Islamists in Algeria's civil war gained vital experience during the Afghanistan war against the Soviets. So the expertise and potential is there. But, a direct line between Pakistan's North West frontier and the Maghreb is probably pushing it.

More likely is that this represents another legacy of one of most brutal and forgotten wars of the late 20th century. Up to 200,000 Algerians died in this near ten year conflict, between Islamist and government forces, that erupted after the 1991 the FIS (Islamic Salvation Front) election victory was cancelled. Within the context of Islamic political history, this was a seismic event. The compatability of Islam and democracy can be debated, but the war certainly shows Islamism's determination to gain power rather than adhering to democratic principles, the lengths authoritarian regimes will go to block it, and in the context of the 1990s - the ever increasing proliferation of militant Islam.

The FIS initially held a moderate leadership, and after their disbandment in March 1992, retreated to northern Algeria's mountains to conduct a guerrilla war. The resistance split into competing factions with different tactics, military/government targets or civilian. The violence evolved into an internecine conflict as hardline Islamist group the GIA (Armed Islamic Group), waged a brutal campaign against the government; previous allies FIS, who were considered collaborators; and thousands of civilians. Both the FIS and GIA sought an Islamic state, through democratic or violent means, but neither succeeded. Atrocities reached their peak in 1997. The GIA proved too extreme for most Islamists, and former members created the GSPC - which although not quite as extreme is constantly active.

Algeria fits neatly between Afghanistan and Iraq in the militant Islam chronology. Factionalism, fanatical commitment to overthrowing the state, and use of extreme violence are the common factors. A low level war is ongoing, but given that GSPC is numbering about 300 fighters, it is a low priority. Algeria's war is hopefully finished, and considering WMD trends across the region - Algeria and Jordan are looking to initiate nuclear programs - having one more state becoming unstable could have devastating consequences.