Algeria - an unfinished war

After a new front opened in the Horn of Africa earlier this year, and completing another little jihadist historical cycle, Algeria's militant GSPC group have adopted brand bin laden, changing their name to the al-Qaeda organisation in the Islamic Maghreb. A signed statement posted on the internet confirms fears that Al-Qaeda's influence is slowly spreading across North Africa, and that Algeria's civil war of the 1990s is not quite finished. How serious are either of these developments? The brand has been widely adopted by various jihadist groups of varying capability, but this does not necessarily imply an operational partnership. Know-how is widely available via the internet and thousands of Islamists in Algeria's civil war gained vital experience during the Afghanistan war against the Soviets. So the expertise and potential is there. But, a direct line between Pakistan's North West frontier and the Maghreb is probably pushing it.

More likely is that this represents another legacy of one of most brutal and forgotten wars of the late 20th century. Up to 200,000 Algerians died in this near ten year conflict, between Islamist and government forces, that erupted after the 1991 the FIS (Islamic Salvation Front) election victory was cancelled. Within the context of Islamic political history, this was a seismic event. The compatability of Islam and democracy can be debated, but the war certainly shows Islamism's determination to gain power rather than adhering to democratic principles, the lengths authoritarian regimes will go to block it, and in the context of the 1990s - the ever increasing proliferation of militant Islam.

The FIS initially held a moderate leadership, and after their disbandment in March 1992, retreated to northern Algeria's mountains to conduct a guerrilla war. The resistance split into competing factions with different tactics, military/government targets or civilian. The violence evolved into an internecine conflict as hardline Islamist group the GIA (Armed Islamic Group), waged a brutal campaign against the government; previous allies FIS, who were considered collaborators; and thousands of civilians. Both the FIS and GIA sought an Islamic state, through democratic or violent means, but neither succeeded. Atrocities reached their peak in 1997. The GIA proved too extreme for most Islamists, and former members created the GSPC - which although not quite as extreme is constantly active.

Algeria fits neatly between Afghanistan and Iraq in the militant Islam chronology. Factionalism, fanatical commitment to overthrowing the state, and use of extreme violence are the common factors. A low level war is ongoing, but given that GSPC is numbering about 300 fighters, it is a low priority. Algeria's war is hopefully finished, and considering WMD trends across the region - Algeria and Jordan are looking to initiate nuclear programs - having one more state becoming unstable could have devastating consequences.

Big Brother: The end of an Empire

This blog looks at current events from a historico-political angle with a degree of high brow prose, so I am not dumbing down in any respect in this next post, but this concerns the latest media fed social-cultural experiment on wayward modern British attitudes in a very bizarre house. Aka (it's difficult to type this): celebrity Big Brother. I am not remotely interested in who is a racist, what it says about the British working classes or whether Channel 4 should be scrapped. The important issue is Britain and its history with India past, present and future. If Jade et al had victimised someone of another race, then the impact I think (this is controversial) would not have been as acute. Firstly they probably wouldn't have, but Indian culture despite integrating fully into British society, is misunderstood, patronised and, in the case of the witches of Elstree, feared. The relationship between the two has not overcome its mixed history and sadly it has taken a bit of TV as crass as this to show it. The Raj, the Jewel in the Crown, represented the best and worst of the British Empire. Between 1858 and 1947, Britain governed India and traded off its wealth, the success of which is remarkable given how diametrically opposed the two cultures are. Post World War II, the inevitable partition left an ugly stain, as it did in all former colonies. However the Commonwealth Immigrants Act 1962 might be considered a turning point for British history - creating the conditions for a multi-cultural Britain. Given that this process began 45 years ago, attitudes like those on display are startling (to most liberal semi intellectual people), but where there is ignorance there is prejudice. The fortunes of both countries have been mixed since we parted 60 years ago this year. India took a long road to possible global domination (economically at least); Britain has taken a long road to global subservience (politically at least). Gordon Brown, caught in a storm of protests during his visit to India, puts the subcontinent as a key player in this century. And these events have probably done his political future a good turn, raising his profile and vision indirectly. Brown praises India and calls for a new world order, but thankfully Jade etc won't be part of it.

Who were the Safavids?

In another blow to Sunni-Shia reconciliation, yesterday's gruesome execution of former Ba'thist judge Barzan Ibrahim al-Tikriti, was described with historical resonance as "the grudge of the Safavids" by his son-in-law. A misjudgment in the length of rope required to hang Saddam Hussein's half brother led to his decapitation, a scene thankfully not released by the Iraqi government to date. From the Yemen, Azzam Salih Abdullah, claimed that the beheading was an act of revenge by the newly empowered Shia leaders. Reference to the Safavids is significant, as it was this Iranian dynasty that established Shia Islam in Persia, creating the first Shi'a state. Originally from Iranian Azarbaijan, the Safavids built an empire between 1501 and 1736 that stretched eastwards to Kandahar, and bordered the Ottoman Empire along the Euphrates. Baghdad was sacked as part of an early campaign, and constant invasion by both the Safavids and Ottomans led to the city's decline until the 20th century. History in the Middle East enjoys cycles and the peoples feed on it and cherish it. History pays back them in return, and often with added tragedy.

The new Saddam..

2006 was a good year for ridding the world of the 20th century's worst dictators. In March Serb leader Slobodan Milosevic died in his cell in the Hague; Chile's General Augusto Pinochet departed after heart failure in December; the extremely eccentric President Niyazov of Turkmenistan passed before Christmas and Saddam Hussein was executed 2 days before the year's end. So far in 2007, Fidel Castro is on his death bed according to latest reports. The term dictator might now slowly become a thing of the past, reserved simply for politics students and the historian establishment. Globalisation, the spread of liberal democracy, and global appeals for equality in human rights have been chipping away at despotic principles the world over. Slowly peoples resist and dictators are exposed for what they really are. So who is left? The majority based around Africa, Middle East and South Asia and new additions do pop up occasionally (Thailand being a latest). http://www.arthuredelstein.org/worlddictators/
You would need to ask the peoples involved, but I would struggle to believe that all of these are in the Saddam, Milosevic category. Swaziland and Oman are, as far as I know, peaceful places where democracy isn't a priority but repression isn't the done thing either. But old favorites Mugabe, Kim Jong il, etc obviously fit into the classic definition. However the counter argument says that the international system is not advanced enough for a tyranny free world. Imbalances of power from poverty, post-colonialism or militarism prolong an international dictatorial presence.
Dictators often use history as an inspiration; Stalin's cult of personality inspired Saddam and Jong-il; and Saddam in turn provides a model for Burma's General Than Shwe. So whilst these ambitions to be added to the pantheon of meglomaniacs continue to exist and motivate in the Third world, dictators are going to be with us a little while longer.

Black Hawk Down: the sequel

Just when all the attention is on Iraq and the Bush administration's new strategy, US airstrikes have hit suspected Al-Qaeda targets in Somalia. The Horn of Africa has been simmering since the infamous Black Hawk Down disaster of October 1993, with no satisfactory political resolution, an ever increasing Islamist presence, and the recent conflict with Ethiopia. How connected the Islamists in Somalia are to those in Iraq is unclear. But if Sudanese fighters can be arrested in Baghdad, then why not Somalians? With both African states (Sudan and Somalia) experiencing greater penetration by Al-Qaeda related groups and exporting / importing similar ideologies, the region has become a little bit smaller (and dangerous). When you consider how close Somalia is to Saudi Arabia, maybe a new front might be opening in the war against Al-Qaeda. A short boat journey and the jihadist circle is squared once again.

But this might simply be unfinished business. The scars of Mogadishu 1993, Al-Qaeda's first significant attack against Kenya and Tanzanian embassies in 1998, are still there, despite being on Clinton's watch. For all the talk of preventive strikes in the wake of the Bush doctrine, only 1 similar attack has occured in the Yemen 2002. So given the low priority of these suspects, I would suspect that wider geopolitical goals are under consideration here. A new conflict could be emerging and the US wants to get an early blow in.

Bulgaria nEUw year...

Well I've just spent the last week in Bulgaria, eating casseroled rabbit; drinking local grappa and sharing entry into the EU. Bulgaria, no differently to any other Balkan state, has a very mixed past: wars, foreign occupation, political assassinations and ethnic tensions. Pretty average for the region, but Bulgaria has emerged smiling. With a population of 7 million and roughly the size of Liberia or Iceland, it's never going to change the world, but it has carved its own image as the responsible Balkan. No mean feat given, the region's history.

Entry to the EU may be considered a poisoned chalice to the sceptics, but it will ease investment restrictions, develop further its infrastructure (Bulgaria isn't short of building sites - most of which are idly waiting for that extra bit of cash to be injected). It also benefits the EU, in its eastern expansion (the Black Sea has been touched at last - Turkey further bordered) and circles its neighbours allowing a good view of EU offerings, making ascension more irresistable.

But Bulgaria has a long way to go. Whilst the metropolitan generation is upwardly mobile and reaching out to Western Europe, its political class are treated with cynicism and its rural classes isolated and uninterested. However the contrast to 17 years ago and also to the economic crises of the 1990s is uplifting to most Bulgarians. Whereas Czech and Hungarian entrance to the EU mainstream was swift, Bulgaria has been slow but it is better for it. Bulgaria has lived under two of history's greatest empires - Ottoman and Soviet - only to feel at home once again under another dominant structure.

Saddam - never forgotten...

Just got back from Bulgaria, so a little late on the biggest news story of the year - damm!

In the same way, that he tormented Iraq during his rule; baffled and mocked in his trial; and divided and embarrassed in his execution, Saddam has once again left an indelible mark on Iraqi society's psyche. Given the events of the last 3 1/2 years, who could expect a humane civilised end? The brutality that cuts across all things Iraqi was here in abundance. The execution reflected all that is bad there: cold violence; sectarian vengeance; chaotic disorganisation.

But Saddam cared little for his victims, so why should he receive any favours? One fundamental rule that has always been missing, whether at Abu Ghraib, in distribution of reconstruction contracts, or suppression of the insurgency, is a sense of moral altitude. Act like we as civilised nations expect to; not accept any method to achieve our aims. American society isn't too blame by any means, but gung ho military culture; marriage to corporate interests; "liberal" use of the death penalty; and ambiguous definition of human rights in Bush administration has all fed into this ugly disaster.

Iraq has moved on now. The insurgency that Saddam played a minor role in forming has outlived him and outgrown him as a threat to both the country and the region. Thousands died during his time, but were there executions, death squads, suicide bombers? He invaded two neighbouring countries, fired scuds at a third and threatened others, but WMD proliferation was contained, terrorism limited to domestic targets, and Shia-Sunni rivalry only seen along the Iraq-Iran border. Once Saddam was arrested and on trial, he appeared weak and lacked any menace, especially as new fears emerged, but to both his supporters and enemies he will never be forgotten.